How went the predictions?

Well it seems i was pretty on the nose with my Feb 19 predictions of the Oscars outcome (see right hand column). Only Waltz With Bashir was wrong for foreign language, but i think i may have been blinded by my love of that movie. And to be fair i haven't seen winning film Departures, it may be amazing. Disappointingly i was right about Penn, oh well, he was great. Never mind Mickey, as Billy said to Bill last time Sean won, "we still luv ya".

Oscar predictions: The 1st attempt

It's 101 days until Oscar night and well over two months until the nominations but i'm going to shoot off my first predictions for this year's main categories. I will be keeping a record of these predictions as i make new ones, as well as other individual category ones and nominations predictions down the right hand bar. I will never re-edit any of them, and i will date all so i can see how close i got and when i did get it right (if at all) how far out I got it. All predictions will also get a post with a Predictions 2008 label so it can seen i'm not cheating and editing the right-hand tracker!

So the first set! Wednesday November 12, 2008 Days to Oscars: 101

Best Film: too early to call as i haven't seen Benjamin Button, Reader and Australia yet so i can't agree with or dispute the early Button buzz. For my money the best i've seen to date and a guaranteed nominee is Revolutionary Road.

Best Director: As Film

Best Animated Film: WALL-E - without a doubt, this is a lock and anyone who's seen it knows that to be true.

Best Actor: Mickey Rourke or Frank Langella. Langella was my early favourite because he's extraordinary in Frost/Nixon and he has elder-statesman angle but Rourke is the 'story' vote this year and Langella will suffer if a lot of other political-edged bio performances take other slots (these could include Brolin in W., Del Toro in Che, Penn in Milk). If they don't he'll be a stronger contender. I suspect Langella will get the BAFTA and Rourke will get the Oscar.

Best Actress: Kate Winslet - While Streep will be nominated and is current favourite this feels like Kate Winslet's year. That said if she is nominated for both Revolutinary Road and The Reader she could split her chances and then Streep or even Angelina Jolie could take the prize. BAFTA may well plump for Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long. This is the best of all the performances but politics will ensure she doesn't win the Oscar - she may be British, but it is a French-speaking role and the Oscars will never give a French-language performance Best Actress two consecutive years. For now i'm saying Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road.

Best Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin in Milk - This could all change (i haven't even seen the film yet, seeing it next week). But i don't think Ledger's going to get this. He'll be nommed. But think Brolin. He was the (excellent) centre of a great film last year (No Country For Old Men) but got almost no recognition himself as Bardem had the bravura performance and TLJ had the pre-film profile. Add to that his stunning turn in W. for which he will not win whether nominated or not and you have a lock on Best Supporting Actor in my opinion. If bookies are taking bets now that's where i'd put my money.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams in Doubt - Similar to Brolin, Adams is a rapidly rising force to be reckoned with. Always good she has a recent Oscar nom under her belt for Junebug and was glorious to behold in the delightfully daft Enchanted. Add to that recent strong turns in films like Miss Pettigrew Lives For A Day and Charlie Wilson's War. Adams is the foundation on which Doubt is built. Streep and Hoffman may have the showier roles (and if she was unknown she'd be lost underneath them) but she manages to stand out. In not a terribly strong year for supporting actresses anyway i think she has to be the frontrunner - it will also give Doubt the token acting win it must get to allow for Streep not winning.

So today that's where i stand. This may, and likely will, all change. I'll update as necessary.