It's 101 days until Oscar night and well over two months until the nominations but i'm going to shoot off my first predictions for this year's main categories. I will be keeping a record of these predictions as i make new ones, as well as other individual category ones and nominations predictions down the right hand bar. I will never re-edit any of them, and i will date all so i can see how close i got and when i did get it right (if at all) how far out I got it. All predictions will also get a post with a Predictions 2008 label so it can seen i'm not cheating and editing the right-hand tracker!
So the first set! Wednesday November 12, 2008 Days to Oscars: 101
Best Film: too early to call as i haven't seen Benjamin Button, Reader and Australia yet so i can't agree with or dispute the early Button buzz. For my money the best i've seen to date and a guaranteed nominee is Revolutionary Road.
Best Director: As Film
Best Animated Film: WALL-E - without a doubt, this is a lock and anyone who's seen it knows that to be true.
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke or Frank Langella. Langella was my early f
avourite because he's extraordinary in Frost/Nixon and he has elder-statesman angle but Rourke is the 'story' vote this year and Langella will suffer if a lot of other political-edged bio performances take other slots (these could include Brolin in W., Del Toro in Che, Penn in Milk). If they don't he'll be a stronger contender. I suspect Langella will get the BAFTA and Rourke will get the Oscar.
avourite because he's extraordinary in Frost/Nixon and he has elder-statesman angle but Rourke is the 'story' vote this year and Langella will suffer if a lot of other political-edged bio performances take other slots (these could include Brolin in W., Del Toro in Che, Penn in Milk). If they don't he'll be a stronger contender. I suspect Langella will get the BAFTA and Rourke will get the Oscar.Best Actress: Kate Winslet - While Streep will be nominated and is current favourite this feels like Kate Winslet's year. That said if she is nominated for both Revolutinary Road and The Reader she could split her chances and then Streep or even Angelina Jolie could take the prize. BAFTA may well plump for Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long. This is the best of all the performances but politics will ensure she doesn't win the Oscar - she may be British, but it is a French-speaking role and the Oscars will never give a French-language performance Best Actress two consecutive years. For now i'm saying Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road.
Best Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin in Milk - This could all change (i ha
ven't even seen the film yet, seeing it next week). But i don't think Ledger's going to get this. He'll be nommed. But think Brolin. He was the (excellent) centre of a great film last year (No Country For Old Men) but got almost no recognition himself as Bardem had the bravura performance and TLJ had the pre-film profile. Add to that his stunning turn in W. for which he will not win whether nominated or not and you have a lock on Best Supporting Actor in my opinion. If bookies are taking bets now that's where i'd put my money.
ven't even seen the film yet, seeing it next week). But i don't think Ledger's going to get this. He'll be nommed. But think Brolin. He was the (excellent) centre of a great film last year (No Country For Old Men) but got almost no recognition himself as Bardem had the bravura performance and TLJ had the pre-film profile. Add to that his stunning turn in W. for which he will not win whether nominated or not and you have a lock on Best Supporting Actor in my opinion. If bookies are taking bets now that's where i'd put my money.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams in Doubt - Similar to Brolin, Adams is a rapidly rising force to be reckoned with. Always good she has a recent Oscar nom under her belt for Junebug and was glorious to behold in the delightfully daft Enchanted. Add to that recent strong turns in films like Miss Pettigrew Lives For A Day and Charlie Wilson's War. Adams is the foundation on which Doubt is built. Streep and Hoffman may have the showier roles (and if she was unknown she'd be lost underneath them) but she manages to stand out. In not a terribly strong year for supporting actresses anyway i think she has to be the frontrunner - it will also give Doubt the token acting win it must get to allow for Streep not winning.So today that's where i stand. This may, and likely will, all change. I'll update as necessary.
7 comments:
But let's not forget that Ledger, who's dead, and will never have another chance to win an Oscar (due to the whole death thing). He was widely considered one of the best, if not the best actor of his generation, and many consider Brokeback Mountain to be one of the best performances of the last half century.
In addition to that, he's in one of the highest grossing films of all time ($1 billion).
All this and I haven't even mentioned the performance. Yeah, Brolin had a great performance last year in a brilliant movie that got overlooked. Don't worry. His time will come, and he will be nominated this year, but I think you're forgetting the sheer, head-crushing brilliance of Ledger's performance.
In fact, all I can say is that Brolin will give a great performance, and that when we look back on this race, we'll say that he would have been a lock any other year.
Agreed, Ledger is excellent in Dark Knight. I have a feeling the Oscar voters will feel the nomination is the award here and not want people (the media) to say he got it because he died.
To be fair as good as he is I doubt he would have won if he were still alive and i just have the sneaking suspicion Oscar will look for a way out of handing it to Heath. Brolin may be that way out.
Happy to be proved wrong. Early days yet!
interesting stuff. suspect jolie has most going for her in best actss, regardless of the merits of the performance (i tend to disregard the actual abilities of the nominees when it comes to predicting winners -- look at crash stealing brokeback a few years back). jolie's appearing in an eastwood film, changeling prem'd first at cannes (see mystic also), the role will strike a chord with voters (empowered woman + period piece),she's won best supp actss before which often helps, she's had good press coverage in her personal life the last year, she's the daughter of hollywood talent. i just can't see winslet going from five noms to a win without getting a best supp acts first of all, much as i'd like her to
dark knight has to get some level of recognition from the academy given the scale of what it's done this year commercially -- the awards like to reward artistry but they also need to recognize box-office success if possible. oscar esp gets best TV ratings when the better performing box office fare is in the mix. for 08/09 season that recognition has to go beyond a clutch of technical awards -- dark knight is on a different level to say bourne last year when it comes to counting the cents, euros and yen. expect heath to win it (I'm not as taken by his performance as many other people -- but agree he was badly overlooked on brokeback and it's just if the record books have him as an oscar winner, however harrowing the circs). would michelle williams collect on behalf of heath's daughter if he won? what voter would go against that possibility? we've also not had a posthumous major awards for a while -- in the grand scheme of award-watching these things come round every so often -- is this the season it happens?
It has nothing to do with the amount of money it made. It has to do with the fact that The Dark Knight is one of the best films ever made. It has to do with the fact that, yes, Heath Ledger IS that good, and he would have won even if he was still alive.
The fact that it made a billion dollars means that there may still be hope for the human race and for art in the mainstream.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: The Dark Knight is The Godfather for our generation.
I agree that money is key here. The Oscars need a boost in ratings and if Dark Knight is competing they'll get it. Did Titanic win because it was the best film, or even a particularly good film? Doubtful.
That said Dark Knight is no Titanic and if it or a certain animated robot get best picture nominations this year it will not be just because it is a weak year for best pictures (although it is, almost all of the Oscar front-runners this year are there because the performances are excellent not because the film is) but because WALL-E and Dark Knight are genuinely among the best films made this year.
As for Heath winning if alive, i doubt it, i doubt it very much. It was a very entertaining performance but it's just not Oscar-voter prefered type of thing. Like Depp in POTC the nom would be the recognition. Since he isn't though sentimentality, being owed, and the 'historical place' argument may carry him through. I have a feeling this won't happen though. Perhaps i'll change my mind as the next 100 days tick by. It's early days yet.
On the Winslet-Jolie thing. I think Winslet has now been nominated too many times to go the supporting actress first route. I think when (and she will) wins it'll be in best actress.
This year though? Jolie is a major threat. The Clint factor is a big deal. The period factor is a big deal, etc. If Winslet gets two noms (which seems more than possible) she'll be in danger from both Jolie and Streep. If she only gets one nom then i think her time has come. She is fantastic in Revolutionary Road. Haven't seen The Reader yet.
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