Okay, time to go out there – a couple of weeks have past, let’s put some names up for front-runners at next year’s (this year’s from an accurate POV) Oscars.
First-up the contenders, what is likely to be or may be on the roster?
What will be there? – the sure things?!
Amelia – Mira Nair films have occasionally been pushed but never really found traction in Oscar season, so maybe this will follow suit. But you’d be a fool to bet against 2-time best actress winner Hilary Swank playing Amelia Earhart in this biopic. Given how frequently it is a struggle to find 5 actresses worthy of nominations don’t be surprised to find Swank in here. As for the film the supporting presence of Richard Gere, Ewan McGregor and Virginia Madsen gives it enough interest factor that unless it’s a complete dog Academy voters are bound to watch.
The Human Factor – as long as it gets made in time (the only question mark hanging over this one, and let’s face it, Clint is getting like Woody Allen in his ability to turn a film around fast) then this announced for the season film about Nelson Mandela has Oscar written all over it. Looking at Mandela when first President of South Africa it will star Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon. A new Eastwood movie guarantees Academy attention and he is superb at getting his actors awards recognition. Changeling bagged Angelina a nom this year. Million Dollar Baby got 3 acting noms: wins for Swank and Freeman and a nom for Clint himself (who was also nommed for Unforgiven). Mystic River also got three acting noms: wins for Sean Penn and Tim Robbins and a nomination for Marcia Gay Harden. The man has had 4 best director nominations and his films 4 best picture nominations: he bagged 2 of each. I’d lay money on Freeman being nominated and the film, given Clint’s consistency, must surely – if done in time – be a front-runner.
The Lovely Bones – early footage suggests a beautiful, classy adaptation from Oscar-winner Peter Jackson and his Oscar-winning Lord of the Rings writing team, that evokes Jackson’s Heavenly Creatures. Said footage would also suggest a fantastic performance from Oscar-winner Susan Sarandon who’s been coasting most of this decade. This could blast her back into attention and that’s a classic Academy thing. Anyone who has read the book knows that whatever else they think of the casting of this movie Sarandon is the perfect match to her role and that Grandma Lynn really comes off the page in a way an actress of Sarandon’s skill could really work in a big way. I’d expect Lovely Bones to feature in a big way in technicals and such too, expect this to be next year’s Benjamin Button.
Nine – What’s to question? It’s a big starry musical that’s produced by The Weinstein Company! It is directed by Rob Marshall, who’s last musical film – Chicago – walked off with best picture (can he nab the best director award here that he missed out on in 2002?)! It stars Oscar-winners Daniel Day Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench and Sophia Loren, plus Oscar-nominee Kate Hudson! The adaptation was co-done by the late Anthony Minghella! The central character is a film director! This will be all over the Oscar nominations next year and I guarantee film/director nods but I expect a whole heap.
Likely to feature somewhere and certain to be heavily pushed:
Also sure of noms:
Julie & Julia – I’m just not where. My thinking is a repeat of this year’s Doubt scenario. Meryl “I’m in a movie where’s my nomination” Streep for best actress and Amy Adams for supporting actress. Of course veteran scene-stealer Stanley Tucci is also in this so the on-camera talent is solid. Writer/director Nora Ephron hasn’t directed a good movie in a long time. Between the 40s/50s setting of the Streep Julia Child part and the contemporary Adams part it sound like, as in The Hours, defining who is lead and who is supporting will be tough – sounds like they are equal, and that can’t be good come Oscar season! But I’m going to make a bold prediction here. Amy Adams will be classed as supporting actress and she’s going to win! “Wait a minute! You haven’t seen the film. You haven’t seen any film that might be in this category. Who can you possibly say…?” Ah, but let’s think Oscar politics. Adams is a popular actress, hard to dislike. She was nominated for lead actress for 2005’s Junebug, hit the big time with 2007 smash-hit Enchanted, which showed she could hold a movie and got her a Globe nom she would surely have won if the Globes didn’t have a slightly odd system that landed Marion Cotillard in the comedy/musical actress category instead of drama actress! (She didn’t even sing!) And then this year she was up in supporting actress for Doubt. I know Supporting Actress tends to go to a first-time nominee but if nommed this could be one of those Renee Zellweger, Judi Dench years – just like Penelope Cruz was this year.
Push: Based On the Novel By Sapphire – critics adored it at Sundance. It won both the Grand Jury prize and the Audience award! Given it’s reputation screenplay and potential other nominations – especially for the much lauded performances of young lead Gabourey Sidibe and the supporting turn of Mo’Nique – seem likely. The previous year’s Grand Jury prize winner was Frozen River which carried Melissa Leo through 13 months to a best actress nod this year, and the love sent Push’s way was far, far bigger. Expect this to be there.
A Serious Man – it’s the Coens which surely bags it a screenplay nod regardless?
Taking Woodstock – Ang Lee directs lighter fare than sometimes but with him at the helm, James Schamus on writing duties and a cast that includes Emile Hirsch, Paul Dano, and Imelda Staunton this would have to stink pretty bad to be ignored methinks.
The Tree Of Life – Terrence Malick directs 2-time Oscar-winner Sean Penn and Brad Pitt! It’s period and sounds typically existential (it is Malick).
Up – it’s Pixar which surely bags it an animation nod regardless? It’ll be interesting to see what joins it. Monsters Vs Aliens will be DreamWorks hope, Ice Age 3 will be Blue Sky’s. Tim Burton and Timur Bekmembatov produced a funky looking film called 9 (not to be confused with Nine!). Then there’s also A Christmas Carol from Zemeckis, Wes Anderson’s Fantastic Mr Fox, Miyazaki’s Ponyo On The Cliff By The Sea, Planet 51 and Sony’s Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs.
Watchmen – love it or loathe it must surely get an art direction nod, right? Maybe too early to be remembered I suppose.
And can’t be ruled out – the possibles:
All Good Things – Capturing The Friedmans director Andrew Jarecki makes his fiction feature debut with Ryan Gosling, Frank Langella and Kirsten Dunst providing front-of-camera talent.
Avatar – guaranteed to be a player in the technicals but can Cameron’s sci-fi epic get any other attention? My guess is no but we’ll have to see.
Broken Embraces – The Spanish will probably ignore it as a foreign language entry as usual but a new Pedro Almodovar starring this year’s Oscar-winner Penelope Cruz is bound to catch attention regardless.
The Burning Plain – I’m seeing this next week so will know more then but the feature directing debut of Amores Perros/Three Burials/Babel screenwriter Guillermo Arriaga stars Oscar-winners Charlize Theron and Kim Basinger. It can’t be ruled out.
Cheri – Stephen Frears directs Michelle Pfeiffer. Berlin reviews said Pfeiffer was excellent. It’s a period drama that also stars Oscar-winner Kathy Bates.
Coco Avant Chanel – Audrey Tautou is clearly jealous of Marion Cotillard’s Oscar win since she had been the better known French actress previously so she’s doing her own biopic – of fashion designer Coco Chanel.
Edge Of Darkness – Mel Gibson returns to acting in a film version of an acclaimed BBC tv series. Any good? Well, we’ll have to wait and see.
Fame – ah, a big splashy musical. How never know, but I suspect Nine will be the musical getting the plaudits come Oscar time.
Fireflies In The Garden – met with mixed reviews at Berlin this year but reportly has good performances and as a semi-autobiographical ‘family torn apart by tragedy’ tale starring Julia Roberts, Willem Dafoe, Emily Watson and an apparently career-best Ryan Reynolds this could still catch attention.
Funny People – the trailer makes it look like Judd Apatow is trying to become the new James L Brooks, will he get Brooks’ Academy kudos?
How Do You Know? – and how will the old James L Brooks feel about that? Brooks is back here directing Reese Witherspoon, Paul Rudd and Owen Wilson. Spanglish didn’t work out but to rule out a new Brooks film come Oscar season is never a wise move.
What will be there? – the sure things?!
Amelia – Mira Nair films have occasionally been pushed but never really found traction in Oscar season, so maybe this will follow suit. But you’d be a fool to bet against 2-time best actress winner Hilary Swank playing Amelia Earhart in this biopic. Given how frequently it is a struggle to find 5 actresses worthy of nominations don’t be surprised to find Swank in here. As for the film the supporting presence of Richard Gere, Ewan McGregor and Virginia Madsen gives it enough interest factor that unless it’s a complete dog Academy voters are bound to watch.
The Human Factor – as long as it gets made in time (the only question mark hanging over this one, and let’s face it, Clint is getting like Woody Allen in his ability to turn a film around fast) then this announced for the season film about Nelson Mandela has Oscar written all over it. Looking at Mandela when first President of South Africa it will star Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon. A new Eastwood movie guarantees Academy attention and he is superb at getting his actors awards recognition. Changeling bagged Angelina a nom this year. Million Dollar Baby got 3 acting noms: wins for Swank and Freeman and a nom for Clint himself (who was also nommed for Unforgiven). Mystic River also got three acting noms: wins for Sean Penn and Tim Robbins and a nomination for Marcia Gay Harden. The man has had 4 best director nominations and his films 4 best picture nominations: he bagged 2 of each. I’d lay money on Freeman being nominated and the film, given Clint’s consistency, must surely – if done in time – be a front-runner.
The Lovely Bones – early footage suggests a beautiful, classy adaptation from Oscar-winner Peter Jackson and his Oscar-winning Lord of the Rings writing team, that evokes Jackson’s Heavenly Creatures. Said footage would also suggest a fantastic performance from Oscar-winner Susan Sarandon who’s been coasting most of this decade. This could blast her back into attention and that’s a classic Academy thing. Anyone who has read the book knows that whatever else they think of the casting of this movie Sarandon is the perfect match to her role and that Grandma Lynn really comes off the page in a way an actress of Sarandon’s skill could really work in a big way. I’d expect Lovely Bones to feature in a big way in technicals and such too, expect this to be next year’s Benjamin Button.
Nine – What’s to question? It’s a big starry musical that’s produced by The Weinstein Company! It is directed by Rob Marshall, who’s last musical film – Chicago – walked off with best picture (can he nab the best director award here that he missed out on in 2002?)! It stars Oscar-winners Daniel Day Lewis, Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench and Sophia Loren, plus Oscar-nominee Kate Hudson! The adaptation was co-done by the late Anthony Minghella! The central character is a film director! This will be all over the Oscar nominations next year and I guarantee film/director nods but I expect a whole heap.
Likely to feature somewhere and certain to be heavily pushed:
Also sure of noms:
Julie & Julia – I’m just not where. My thinking is a repeat of this year’s Doubt scenario. Meryl “I’m in a movie where’s my nomination” Streep for best actress and Amy Adams for supporting actress. Of course veteran scene-stealer Stanley Tucci is also in this so the on-camera talent is solid. Writer/director Nora Ephron hasn’t directed a good movie in a long time. Between the 40s/50s setting of the Streep Julia Child part and the contemporary Adams part it sound like, as in The Hours, defining who is lead and who is supporting will be tough – sounds like they are equal, and that can’t be good come Oscar season! But I’m going to make a bold prediction here. Amy Adams will be classed as supporting actress and she’s going to win! “Wait a minute! You haven’t seen the film. You haven’t seen any film that might be in this category. Who can you possibly say…?” Ah, but let’s think Oscar politics. Adams is a popular actress, hard to dislike. She was nominated for lead actress for 2005’s Junebug, hit the big time with 2007 smash-hit Enchanted, which showed she could hold a movie and got her a Globe nom she would surely have won if the Globes didn’t have a slightly odd system that landed Marion Cotillard in the comedy/musical actress category instead of drama actress! (She didn’t even sing!) And then this year she was up in supporting actress for Doubt. I know Supporting Actress tends to go to a first-time nominee but if nommed this could be one of those Renee Zellweger, Judi Dench years – just like Penelope Cruz was this year.
Push: Based On the Novel By Sapphire – critics adored it at Sundance. It won both the Grand Jury prize and the Audience award! Given it’s reputation screenplay and potential other nominations – especially for the much lauded performances of young lead Gabourey Sidibe and the supporting turn of Mo’Nique – seem likely. The previous year’s Grand Jury prize winner was Frozen River which carried Melissa Leo through 13 months to a best actress nod this year, and the love sent Push’s way was far, far bigger. Expect this to be there.
A Serious Man – it’s the Coens which surely bags it a screenplay nod regardless?
Taking Woodstock – Ang Lee directs lighter fare than sometimes but with him at the helm, James Schamus on writing duties and a cast that includes Emile Hirsch, Paul Dano, and Imelda Staunton this would have to stink pretty bad to be ignored methinks.
The Tree Of Life – Terrence Malick directs 2-time Oscar-winner Sean Penn and Brad Pitt! It’s period and sounds typically existential (it is Malick).
Up – it’s Pixar which surely bags it an animation nod regardless? It’ll be interesting to see what joins it. Monsters Vs Aliens will be DreamWorks hope, Ice Age 3 will be Blue Sky’s. Tim Burton and Timur Bekmembatov produced a funky looking film called 9 (not to be confused with Nine!). Then there’s also A Christmas Carol from Zemeckis, Wes Anderson’s Fantastic Mr Fox, Miyazaki’s Ponyo On The Cliff By The Sea, Planet 51 and Sony’s Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs.
Watchmen – love it or loathe it must surely get an art direction nod, right? Maybe too early to be remembered I suppose.
And can’t be ruled out – the possibles:
All Good Things – Capturing The Friedmans director Andrew Jarecki makes his fiction feature debut with Ryan Gosling, Frank Langella and Kirsten Dunst providing front-of-camera talent.
Avatar – guaranteed to be a player in the technicals but can Cameron’s sci-fi epic get any other attention? My guess is no but we’ll have to see.
Broken Embraces – The Spanish will probably ignore it as a foreign language entry as usual but a new Pedro Almodovar starring this year’s Oscar-winner Penelope Cruz is bound to catch attention regardless.
The Burning Plain – I’m seeing this next week so will know more then but the feature directing debut of Amores Perros/Three Burials/Babel screenwriter Guillermo Arriaga stars Oscar-winners Charlize Theron and Kim Basinger. It can’t be ruled out.
Cheri – Stephen Frears directs Michelle Pfeiffer. Berlin reviews said Pfeiffer was excellent. It’s a period drama that also stars Oscar-winner Kathy Bates.
Coco Avant Chanel – Audrey Tautou is clearly jealous of Marion Cotillard’s Oscar win since she had been the better known French actress previously so she’s doing her own biopic – of fashion designer Coco Chanel.
Edge Of Darkness – Mel Gibson returns to acting in a film version of an acclaimed BBC tv series. Any good? Well, we’ll have to wait and see.
Fame – ah, a big splashy musical. How never know, but I suspect Nine will be the musical getting the plaudits come Oscar time.
Fireflies In The Garden – met with mixed reviews at Berlin this year but reportly has good performances and as a semi-autobiographical ‘family torn apart by tragedy’ tale starring Julia Roberts, Willem Dafoe, Emily Watson and an apparently career-best Ryan Reynolds this could still catch attention.
Funny People – the trailer makes it look like Judd Apatow is trying to become the new James L Brooks, will he get Brooks’ Academy kudos?
How Do You Know? – and how will the old James L Brooks feel about that? Brooks is back here directing Reese Witherspoon, Paul Rudd and Owen Wilson. Spanglish didn’t work out but to rule out a new Brooks film come Oscar season is never a wise move.
The Imaginarum Of Doctor Parnassus - this has art direction, make-up, costume design etc written all over it. With a cast including the late Heath Ledger, Johnny Depp, Colin Farrell, Christopher Plummer and Jude Law this is likely to be Terry Gilliam's best chance at getting any Oscar attention for one of his films since 12 Monkeys.
The Informant – Seemingly going for Coen-quirk this Steven Soderbergh film starring Matt Damon may not be Oscar’s type of thing (after all they already have the actual Coens for that) but who knows.
Public Enemies – a sumptuous looking period film watched over by perfectionist Michael Mann. Starring Johnny Depp, Christian Bale and Marion Cotillard! Hello, Oscar we have our big-studio-contender for the year!
Shanghai – 1940s romantic drama with spys and intrigue with John Cusack, Gong Li and Ken Watanabe.
Shutter Island – having read the book years ago this seems more like money Scorsese than Oscar Scorsese to me, but then I’d have said the same thing about The Departed! With a cast including Scorsese’s new DeNiro, Leonardo DiCaprio, as well as Mark Ruffalo, Michelle Williams, Ben Kingsley, Jackie Earle Haley and Patricia Clarkson it can’t be ignored.
State Of Play – May be too early in the year to be remember (and that may be a danger sign too of course) but with Kevin Macdonald directing Russell Crowe, Helen Mirren, Ben Affleck and Rachel McAdams it could be good enough to keep it in mind.
Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen – the VFX are set to be bigger, better and less confusing. Will the Academy make up for their criminal slight is overlooking the VFX in the first film I favour of Golden Compass’ dodgy polar bear? Oh, and sound is a likelihood.
Untitled Nancy Meyers – a new Meyers comedy shouldn’t be ignored. It is releasing in December in prime consideration slot. Something’s Gotta Give bagged Diane Keaton a best actress nom and this one has Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin. Baldwin is consistently stunning in 30 Rock, can he bring it here? Could ex-Oscar host Martin redeem himself? Will Streep cause herself problems with this and Julie & Julia? Hmmm!
Up In The Air - Jason (Juno) Reitman directs George Clooney, Jason Bateman and Vera Farmiga. Another one with an whiff of Coen-quirk about it.
Whatever Works – it’s a new Woody Allen comedy, back in NY with Larry David! Okay, nothing about that says Oscar, but hey, it’s Woody. You never know.
Where the Wild Things Are – it’s been troubled but I have a feeling Spike Jonze’s labour of love could be frickin’ fantastic. The stills and early footage look amazing. The book is beloved. Jonze has put heart and soul, and no doubt blood and tears into this. It’s my wild-card for a best picture nom.
The Young Victoria – costume dramas draw costume nominations like flies. Will this be different?
2 comments:
Bloody hell. There's always something from Cannes at least, like Changeling or the Coens or Mystic River. Maybe that Loach thing with Cantona, it's the only thing not listed here...
I believe Malick's Tree Of Life was talked about as maybe going to Cannes this year
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